中国7月份CPI和PPI双双同比下降

Chinese prices continued to fall in July from a year earlier, reducing the likelihood that Beijing will soon adjust its policy of boosting growth with easy credit and surging infrastructure spending.

7月份中国物价继续同比下跌，这使得中国政府很快进行政策调整的可能性有所下降。目前中国正凭借宽松的信贷和激增的基础设施支出来推动经济增长。

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday, China's consumer price index fell 1.8 per cent while the producer price index was down 8.2 per cent from a year earlier, despite a flood of bank lending and investment in recent months.

根据国家统计局(NBS)周二公布的数据，尽管近几个月银行贷款和投资激增，但中国7月居民消费价格(CPI)和工业品出厂价格指数(PPI)仍分别同比下降1.8%和8.2%。

Fixed asset investment rose 32.9 per cent from a year earlier in July while industrial output expanded by 10.8 per cent, the fastest rate in nine months. The figures provided further evidence of recovery in China's economy, which has come largely as a result of government investment and state-directed lending that saw new bank loans triple in the first half from the same period last year.

今年7月，中国固定资产投资同比增长32.9%。工业增加值同比增长10.8%，为9个月以来的最高增速。这些数据为中国经济复苏提供了进一步的证据，复苏主要是政府投资和政府指导下放贷的结果。今年上半年，中国新增贷款规模为去年同期的3倍。

Meanwhile, China's exports and imports continued to decline in July from a year earlier, underscoring the need for the government to maintain its domestic investment-led stimulus.

与此同时，中国7月进出口继续同比下滑，这突显出政府继续保持其国内由投资拉动的刺激举措的必要性。

Exports were down 23 per cent from a year earlier, while imports fell 14.9 per cent but both were up around 10 per cent month-on-month from June, continuing a sequential rebound that began in April.

中国7月进出口分别较去年同期下降14.9%和23%，但与6月相比均增长10%左右，持续了从4月份开始的逐月反弹趋势。

While Beijing is worried about asset price inflation in the real estate and stock markets, the negative year-on-year CPI and PPI readings provide the government with breathing room to maintain its “moderately loose” monetary policy, according to economists.

经济学家表示，在中国政府担忧房地产及股市资产价格上涨之际，CPI和PPI数据同比下跌，为政府继续保持其“适度宽松”的货币政策提供了喘息之机。

“People will pay most attention to the inflation figures to see whether the government is likely to tighten its monetary policy,” according to Vincent Chan, an economist at Credit Suisse in Hong Kong. “These latest figures mean there will be no near-term change in the government's monetary policy.”

瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)驻香港的经济学家陈昌华(Vincent Chan)表示：“人们最关注的将是通胀数据，以此判断（中国）政府是否可能收紧货币政策。这些最新数据表明，政府的货币政策在短期内不会变化。”

Senior leaders have repeatedly emphasized their commitment to the current loose monetary conditions in recent weeks but the central bank and banking regulators have also ordered banks to rein in new lendingand reduce exposure to potential bad loans.

近几周来，中国高层领导人反复强调了维持当前宽松货币环境的决心，但央行和银行业监管机构同时也命令各银行控制新的放贷行为，降低潜在坏账的风险。

In a recent report, China's central bank forecast CPI would bottom out at the end of the fourth quarter and while prices fell year-on-year, CPI was flat in July from a month earlier, while PPI rose 1 per cent from the previous month.

中国央行在最近一份报告中预测，CPI将在第四季度末见底。尽管7月份物价同比有所下降，但CPI与上月持平，而PPI环比增长1%。

China's rampant manufacturing overcapacity raised serious worries earlier this year over the potential for deflation but that fear has receded amid strong domestic demand, a flood of liquidity and rising global commodity prices.

今年早些时候，中国制造业产能严重过剩，引发了人们对于有可能出现通缩局面的深切忧虑。但由于强劲的国内需求、充沛的流动性，加之全球大宗商品价格日益上涨，上述担忧已逐渐消退。

According to official data, retail sales of consumer goods rose 5.2 per cent in July from a year earlier, a healthy pace compared to most other economies but still 8.1 percentage point lower than the year-on-year growth in July last year.

官方数据显示，7月份消费品零售总额同比增长15.2%，与其它多数经济体相比，这一增幅都相当可观，但仍较去年同期的增幅低8.1个百分点。